Michael Barbaro discusses the similarities between the 1948 and 2024 presidential elections with Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times found that current President Joe Biden's struggle with economy-motivated voters can be better understood by looking back on the 1948 presidential race between Democrat Harry S. Truman and Republican Thomas Dewey.

Cohn compares the 1948 postwar economy and the 2024 post-pandemic economy through the lens of inflation. Cohn also notes the economic similarities through the housing shortages in both election years. 

Cohn relates Biden's struggles to the historic campaign comeback of Truman in the 1948 election by reminding the reader of Truman's "Do-Nothing Republican Congress" campaign that essentially told voters that the Republicans in congress were doing nothing to control inflation. This is the campaign message that would turn the tide of voting and give Truman the win.

Cohn said he believes Biden is ahead of schedule on the Truman path as the economy is on an upturn as inflation has been steadily declining over the last year. 

"As I just mentioned a moment ago, inflation was still at 10 percent in January 1948," Cohn said, "And inflation today is already down under 4 percent and may still be expected to fall heading into the election."

Cohn goes on to say that consumer sentiment has risen to the highest level since 2021, which is the last time Biden's approval rating was over 50 percent.

Michael Barbaro, host of The New York Times' podcast, The Daily, said that the trajectories appear to be analogous in terms of the economy. Cohn said that the one key difference is that Biden owns the blame for inflation, unlike Truman.

The news value of this story comes by giving the listener some historical insight into a similar political and economical state we live in today and helps them better understand the upcoming election. 

As the chief political analyst for the Times, I am sure Cohn did not face many challenges finding the information to notice the similarities, despite not being born for another 40 years after the 1948 election.

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